Russia is working to develop
within a few years the capability to threaten several neighbors at once
on the scale of its present operation in Ukraine, a senior American
general said.
Lieutenant-General Ben Hodges, commander of U.S. Army forces in Europe,
told Reuters an attack on another neighbor does not seem like an
immediate threat because Moscow appears to have its hands full in
Ukraine for now.
But that could change within a few years, when upgrades sought by
President Vladimir Putin would give Russia the ability to carry out up
to three such operations at the same time, without a mobilization that
would give the West time to respond.
"Right now, without mobilizing, I don't think they have
the capacity to do three major things at one time. They can do one
thing, I think, in a big way without mobilizing. But in four to five
years, I think that will change," Hodges said.
"Certainly within the next four to five years they will
have the ability to conduct operations in eastern Ukraine and pressure
the Baltics and pressure Georgia and do other things, without having to
do a full mobilization."
The war in Ukraine, in which NATO says Moscow has supported
pro-Russian rebels with arms and troops, has alarmed some of Russia's
other neighbors, who are seeking greater reassurances for their defense
from the Western alliance.
Moscow denies its active
troops have fought in eastern Ukraine, but Western governments say they
have evidence it has sent armored columns and hundreds of soldiers. More
than 4,000 people have died in the conflict, including nearly 300 on
board a Malaysian airliner shot down over rebel-held territory.
SPENDING DESPITE CRISIS
Putin has committed to spending billions to boost Russia's
military capability, despite an economic crisis caused by sanctions
over Ukraine and falling oil prices.
NATO experts
say the Ukraine conflict, in which Russian forces swiftly annexed the
Crimea region and pro-Russian rebels scored rapid gains in the east,
shows Putin's increased spending has already yielded results. Russian
forces, particularly small elite units, have proven far more effective
than in a 2008 war in Georgia, they say.
Moscow has
also developed what they describe as "hybrid war" capabilities, in which
it organizes, funds and arms local insurgents while deploying its own
elite troops in unmarked uniforms - known in Crimea as the "little green
men" - so swiftly and covertly that it is difficult to develop a
response.
Hodges said neighbors like the Baltic states and Georgia appear to be safe for now, but possibly not for long.
"I think their focus is on Ukraine. I do think some of the
other countries that are around the perimeter of Russia are watching
that and they are thinking they have got two or three years to get ready
before they may become the target."
Hodges led a
U.S. army "Russia study day" in Germany this week at which military and
civilian experts on Russia briefed commanders from around Europe on
Russia's political and military strategy and its view of the West.
Scores of U.S. officers, hair cropped close and dressed
for combat, listened intently at a U.S. base near Wiesbaden as analysts
portrayed an increasingly assertive Russian leadership deeply suspicious
of Western influence and bent on re-arming.
NATO
agreed on a series of responses to the perceived new Russian threat at
its summit in Wales in September, including stepping up exercises in
eastern Europe and setting up a "spearhead" rapid reaction force.
Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu was quoted this
week by TASS news agency as saying Moscow would stick to its
modernization plans estimated to cost more than 20 trillion rubles ($300
billion) through 2020.
Plans for this year would include 700 new armored vehicles, 126
new military planes, 88 new helicopters and two brigades of Iskander-M
air defense systems, he said. Even so, Moscow's defense budget of about
$68 billion in 2013 was only about one-ninth of Washington's, according
to the International Institute for Strategic Studies thinktank.
A NATO military officer said that in recent years the
Russians had modernized their rocket forces, submarines and air force,
although they have regularly fallen short of their plans.
In the coming year, Russia is expected to improve its
northern, Baltic and Black Sea fleets and continue to modernize some
land forces, said the officer on condition of anonymity.
The slide in the oil price and Western sanctions could slow its military modernization, he said.
While many analysts believe Russia would not want to risk a
direct confrontation with the United States, NATO strategists are
giving thought to the possibility Moscow could stage a Crimea-style
operation in a country such as Estonia, with a large ethnic Russian
minority.
"They
(the Russians) have got the capability to mass quickly and conduct an
offensive before we could militarily respond fast enough at the same
scale," the NATO military officer said.
Estonian military intelligence chief Lieutenant-Colonel
Kaupo Rosin told the meeting that an aggressive new military doctrine
signed by Putin in December showed Moscow was "playing hockey while very
many Western European countries are doing figure-skating".
Noting that it had taken weeks to convince some European
countries that gunmen operating in Crimea were Russian soldiers, Rosin
said Estonia could face a similar problem winning support under NATO's
mutual defense clause if it were attacked.
"My problem would be to produce the necessary evidence."
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